English / ქართული / русский /
Sophio Beridze
THE PROBLEM OF GLOBAL DEBT AND THE DANGERS OF THE DEBT CRISIS

Summary 

The state debt plays an important role in macro-economic system of any country. Debt formation, service and coverage makes important impact at state finance situation, cash flow, investment climate, the origin of international cooperation and further development between states. In today’s reality special attention is paid to influence of increasing foreign debt. If it is not sustainable it can jeopardize economic well-being of the country, its services can cause over-indebtedness and subsequent negative consequences. The economic crisis which is caused because of recent pandemic made important influence at savings. Almost every country of the world had to increase the debt and decrease the reserves. According to researches one third part of developing market economy has limited fiscal space or does not have it at all to deal with the crisis which importantly reduces the prospects for recovery of global demand in the coming years. Therefore, it is expected that the whole world will address to the way of fiscal consolidation for restoration of buffers and fiscal space. The consolidation is an additional brake for economic growth, which is quiet big hindering factor for recovery of world economy to the level of pre-pandemic conditions in brief period of time. We consider it timely to talk about state debt and its service coming out from the preset reality. Studying and researching the influence of state debt on economic stability will support the economic policy makers/actors to plan proper measures for prevention of debt crisis. Despite the fact that the debt growth speed was growing since post-crisis period, the events occurring in 2020 has accelerated the danger which is connected to fast speed of debt, besides, it is important to foresee those hindering factors which are connected to slowdown of economic growth which to its part is caused by decrease of incomes of state and consequently unemployment and worsening the social background. Hence, it is important based on existing experience to respond timely those possible consequence which can be in agenda during the following years. The pandemic has certainly changed the priorities which must be foreseen while talking about immediately worsened reality. The global debt since 1970 was growing and in 2018 it reached 230 percentage of gross domestic product. The debt especially rapidly increased in the countries of developing economy and it achieved its maximum in 2018 when Gross domestic product was 170 percentage.  

At present the origin/growth of state debt despite the severity of its burden is inevitable. If the level of incomes and employment more or less proportionally increases to state debt, burden can be borne and it does not cause concern any more. The percentage rating of debt really cannot determine the debt burden. The basic factor of debt burden is: annual volume of debt service, expression of state debt in economy, type of tax system.

As a conclusion, we can say that despite of divergences of opinions about benefits of state debt, it can be useful tool for certain countries which can be guaranty for country stability, which first of all is achieved through correct country policy. It is important to share existing experience and compare it to macro-economic parameters of a certain country.

The experience shows that collecting debt cannot be useful if it is not used for broadening the production volume and it is not sustainable (according to coverage period, currency and creditors) to fluctuation of economic and financial markets. It can be achieved not only through reasonable management of state debt but reliable regulation and monitoring of financial system as well as reliable corporate management. It is important to respond properly foreign shocks. The private debt can easily form into state debt during financial crisis. Therefore, fast responds have huge importance in order to prevent long-term slowdown of economic activity.